A kidnapping in Baghdad: The US Strategy At Work?

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iran envoy 'abducted in Baghdad'

The Bush administration's new strategy in Iraq is fairly opaque to the average American. The war in Iraq is a very complex animal. What we see in the media is a confusing, maddening mish mash of violence and blood served up by a media that understands very little of what it is showing us.

So when things that are significant happen, events which are evidence of the state of war, we are apt to miss them. The abduction of an Iranian diplomat in Baghdad is one such event. Jalal Sharafi, the Iranian embassy' second secretary was abducted from his car by soldiers in Iraqi army uniforms. According to witnesses, the gunmen had the uniforms of the Iraqi army's elite 36th Commando Battalion -- part of the Iraqi Special Operations Forces Brigade, a unit proficient in counter insurgent operations.

The Iranians have accused the U.S of being behind it. Its quite possibly true. Sharafi had the kind of diplomatic job that is a typical cover for spies. If he was an Iranian intelligence operative of any importance, snatching him would throw a monkey wrench into Iranian operations in the country as the US ratchets up its new strategy. The President has been very clear that he will put pressure on the Iranians activities in Iraq. This action, if it was masterminded by the US is punctuating the President's message: Iran is vulnerable and puts itself in the line of fire if it continues to oppose US plans in Iraq.

The US' success in Iraq is heavily dependent on the Iranians changing their behavior in Iraq. The US is embarking on a path intended to convince the Iranians that the risks involved in continuing to destabilize Iraq are a lot greater than they think, and further that the US is committed to its course in Iraq. This abduction, if it was US sponsored, lets that message be sent without overt military action, something the US has no appetite for. Covert war the US can handle at the moment and if the US hits hard covertly, it may be enough to make the Iranians back off. The US strategic position in Iraq is very weak. This tactic might well not work at all, but its one of the few options the President actually has.